Eurasia Mining

pgm miners- eurasia mining

Eurasia Mining

Eurasia Mining PLC is an international mineral exploration company, listed on the Alternative Investment Market (AIM), focussed on Russia.

Eurasia’s stated objective is to explore for platinum group metals (PGMs) and gold through self-funded own exploration targets and joint venture partnerships with strategic operators and local partners. Operations are funded from the company’s own equity funds and funded joint venture agreements. Projects are subject to an initial evaluation for viability and once this is established further exploration work is carried out to feasibility study level. It is then the company’s intention to either proceed to develop the project to production or partner the project with a suitable operator.

Value range – 06/09/2021

Intrinsic Price (GBp) 103.45
Value Range Low (GBp) 98.28
Value Range High (GBp) 108.63
Implied MCAP (m) £2,964.43
Implied EV (m) £2,964.16
AIM Index EUA
Financial YE 31-Dec
Currency GBP

Business Activity

PGM Mining (Palladium, Platinum, Gold) + Battery Metals Mining

Key metrics

Close Price (GBp) 28.14
MCAP (m) £791.3
Net Debt (cash) (m) -£16.6
EV (m) £774.7
52 Wk Hi 45.00
52 Wk Lo 5.07

Key ratios

(Net Cash) /Shareholder Equity % -2.10%
FX Rate USD/GBP 0.72

Extractives Sector Research
AiM Market Index
Analyst Team
+44 20 7419 7928

extractives@acfequityresearch.com

eurasia mining plc multiples table

EUA progress cuts risk rate

We raise our valuation range >40% for Eurasia Mining (EUA.L), an AiM-quoted Russian Pd / battery metals dominated PGM mine. The valuation approach and range remain conservative. We have examined the overall risk of EUA’s projects and concluded that recent progress reduces our project execution risk assumption. We have expressed this risk reduction by cutting our WACC on the Monchetundra Flanks project only from above 22% to 17%, still very significantly above our 8% WACC for EUA PGM producing asset West Kytlim. We continue to exclude iridium and rhodium assets and the Rosgeo JV from our DCF but examine the potential effects of the Rosgeo JV on resources and reserves trading multiples. We look forward to the Rosgeo JV Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) on 6 of 9 assets, expected in a few weeks.

89%

Monchetundra mine 2025E pre-tax cash flow $89m

28.2%

West Kylim mine 2025E pre-tax cash flow 28.2m. EUA now operates the mine on a 100% revenue basis compared to previous arrangement before 2020 of 30-35% revenue.

EUA operations plan delayed 12 to 24 months due to 7m suspension and Formal Sale Process

2020-2023E

+17,709%

Revenue 2023E £1,995.4m up 17,709% vs. £11.2m 2022E

+17,312% 

EBITDA 2023E £1,415.7m up 17,312% vs. £8.1m 2022E

+17,654% 

Net Income (unadjusted) 2023E £972.8m up 17,654% vs. £5.5m 2022E

+17,864% 

Net Cash from Operations 2023E £1,336.3m up 17,864% vs. £7.4m 2022E

Rh production excluded from valuation for all but West Kytlim;

License granted 15 Moz Flanks by Sevzapnedra, reducing flanks risk;

Pd supply constrained;

PGM prices significantly exceed our valuation assumptions.

FTSE AiM vs. EUA (green line) price relative.

PGM Market Outlook Remains Strong

The Platinum Group Metals refers to six metals – ruthenium, rhodium, palladium, osmium, iridium, and platinum. Of these, the two most important are palladium and platinum. EUA focuses on the mining of these two metals.

Despite the Covid-19 driven correction (and V-shaped recovery) in Pd prices the underlying upward price drivers remain very largely unabated in a supply deficit market. We believe the Pd supply constraint, and rising demand in what is an inelastic largely non-substitutable good, is further sheltered by its tiny % contribution to overall auto costs. These characteristics of the Pd market leave head room for far higher prices than seen prior to the recent and ongoing pandemic.

EUA sum of the parts valuation £2.96bn operations contributions – it is still all about Monchetundra

(Yet to include Rosgeo JV, Iridium resource from projects or Monchetundra Lo+Wn+Flanks Rhodium resource, PGM price assumptions highly conservative vs. 2021 average and current spot prices)

+92.4%

Monchetundra Flanks

+4.9% 

Monchetundra Lo + WN

+2.7%

NPV West Kytlim

1) Potential resources within the existing company licence and the flanks application of ~15 million oz.

2) Potential resources occurring within 5km of the Monchetundra mining license and areas neighbouring the company’s deposits of ~4 million oz.

3) Potential resources within the wider Monchegorsk district in which the Monchetundra license is located of ~21 million oz.

Eurasia Mining valuation catalysts

  • Monchetundra Rosgeo JV DFS and geology information;
  • Development of Monchetundra flanks;
  • Installation of 3 more wash plants at WK;
  • Covid-19 accelerated policies for regional or a global green hydrogen transport economy

Asset One

NPV Monchetundra Flanks £2,738m

Asset Two

NPV Monchetundra Lo + WN 146m

Asset Three

NPV West Kytlim 79.5m

EUA progress cuts risk rate

Monchetundra geochem successfully completed

Rosgeo values EUA JV in-situ-metals at $100bn

Change at PGM stock Eurasia

Does Monchetundra make EUA a £1bn+ play?

To see the latest Eurasia Mining press releases visit their website.

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