Precious Metals
Welcome to ACF Equity Research’s Precious Metals page – this page provides examples of relatively recent leading investment / equity research derived from our expert analysis and insights on the precious metals market. We provide in-depth reports, thematics and engaging blogs on gold (Au), silver (Ag), platinum group metals (PGM / PGE), we are always adding to our coverage, highlighting market trends and valuable investment opportunities and ideas. ACF Equity Research delivers investment research that moves prices, increases volumes and helps educate investors, thorough, accurate, clear and insightful award winning products, analysis and services.
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Our 12m gold price target is $2,400/t oz. up 9% or $200 from our previous $2,200 12m price target, achieved with days to spare! Our hypothesis is that Central Banks will continue to buy above recent averages as they did in 2023, that ETFs anticipating lower interest rates and a weaker USD will move back to gold and that other market participants are anticipating these activities,
taking positions and driving the price upwards. In turn mine supply should rise but with a lag effect. We also propose that gold supply is leaking from the formal market into the informal market and its return faces extended lags, thereby tightening the market. We propose a leakage mechanism below….Read More On Gold 12m Price Target Update-2024
Mining mergers and acquisitions (M&A) continues to increase in volume and value in 2023. Demand for basic materials is growing, this is a primary M&A driver. Cash-rich miners use acquisition to fund resource, reserve and production base expansion. A secondary and possibly equally important M&A driver is sustainability. We explore the factors fueling mining M&A activity, from the green energy transition to the need for reserve replacement….Read More On Mining M&A
We expect the gold price to increase in 2023 driven by rising recession expectations coupled with prospects of a weak dollar and higher inflation. Geopolitical tensions have led to risk-off sentiment supporting gold demand (safe-haven asset). In contrast, higher rates are negative for gold. Peak central bank rates expected in mid-2023 (US 4.9%, UK 4.5%, EU 3.75%), could be a key trigger for gold prices. We expect central bank interest rates to….Read More on Gold (Au) Market
Perpetua Resources Corp. (Nasdaq: PPTA; TSX: PPTA) is an Idaho based (Stibnite jurisdiction), gold-antimony-silver (Au-Sb-Ag) junior explorer/producer. ACF is releasing a valuation increase for PPTA based on milestones achieved since our initiation note. ACF identifies PPTA as a US national strategic asset (Sb) and best-in-class gold asset. On Dec 19, 2022 PPTA received a critical minerals award from the DoD of up to $24.8m for environmental/engineering studies to complete FEIS, RoD/permits and advance year 1 construction readiness. PPTA is an ESG leader amongst junior miners (long run lower WACC). PPTA holds a unique antimony (Sb) reserve in the US and is positioned to be….Read More on PPTA Update
Perpetua Resources Corp. (Nasdaq: PPTA; TSX: PPTA) is an Idaho based (Stibnite jurisdiction), gold-antimony-silver (Au-Sb-Ag) junior explorer/producer. 3Q22A results have evidenced steady state expenses. Our analysis identifies PPTA as a US national strategic asset (Sb) and a best-in-class gold asset. On Oct 28, 2022, the SDEIS was published for a 75-day public comment period. In the SDEIS, the USFS identifies PPTA’s Stibnite Gold Project as the ‘Preferred Alternative’. PPTA is a sustainability/ESG leader amongst junior miners (long run lower WACC). PPTA holds the only economic antimony (Sb) reserve…Read More on PPTA Post-Results
Perpetua Resources Corp. (Nasdaq: PPTA; TSX: PPTA) is an Idaho based (Stibnite jurisdiction), gold-antimony-silver (Au-Sb-Ag) junior explorer/producer. We expect 3Q22E evidence steady state expenses. Our analysis identifies PPTA as a US national strategic asset (Sb) and a best-in-class gold asset. Since our initiation, on Oct 28, 2022, the USFS chose PPTA’s Stibnite Gold Project as the Preferred Alternative on the SDEIS. PPTA is a sustainability/ESG leader amongst junior miners (LR lower WACC) – PPTA has completed its summer 2022 water quality improvement project at Stibnite. PPTA holdsthe only economic Sb reserve in the US and is positioned to be…Read More on PPTA Pre-Results
Perpetua Resources Corp. (Nasdaq: PPTA; TSX: PPTA) is an Idaho based (Stibnite jurisdiction), gold-antimony-silver (Au-Sb-Ag) junior explorer/producer. Our analysis identifies PPTA as a US national strategic asset (Sb) and a best-in-class gold asset. PPTA is a sustainability/ESG leader amongst junior miners (LR lower WACC) – PPTA has produced sustainability reports since 2014 and has begun a water quality improvement project at Stibnite. PPTA holds the only economic Sb reserve in the US and is positioned to be the only domestically mined source of Sb (supplying ~35% of domestic demand). The US is heavily reliant on Sb for defense and ammunition. PPTA was recently awarded $200k from the DoD through the Defense Logistics Agency, to evaluate if its Sb meets military specifications…Read More On PPTA Initiation
Silver (Ag) is half store of value and half industrial metal. A hawkish Federal Reserve and spiking bond yields will create significant headwinds for the Ag price 2H22E. Any expectations for global recession, leading to an industrial cycle downturn will also push the silver price down. In 2H22E we assess that both weakening industrial activity (>50% of global silver demand) and monetary policy trends will exert donward pressure on silver’s price. Beyond YE22E the physical silver supply deficit remains a positive for the silver price. As the world transitions to greener forms of energy and transport, the commensurate increasing use of silver…Read More On Silver Market – The Janus Metal
The continued supply deficit of PGM – in particular palladium (Pd) – has been a growing cause for concern or interest, depending on one’s perspective, since 2018. As a result of the Pd deficit and the less than robust supply of Pt, prices for both Pd and Pt have increased rapidly and significantly since 2019. The direction of travel of PGM prices is correlated with the PGM deficit, but the supply/demand equilibrium is more complex than it appears at first glance. This complexity means that prolonged or intermittent unpredictable individual mine closures could lead to sustained additional rises in PGM prices, particularly, Pd, Pt and Rh. We assess that this unpredictability of supply is an inherent characteristic of PGM pricing….Read More On PGM Value Drivers – is Norilsk Key?
We assess that the gold price will continue its long-term rise. The general case for investing in junior miners remains strong and the stock specific case will only grow in importance.
In this ACF analytical blog we assess the items driving the price of gold, what the implications of the pandemic and longer-term post-pandemic conditions are and why, in our view, the upward trend is set to continue.
In general, we are witnessing an increase in structural, political and economic instability in the global economy. The Covid pandemic has become an additional element driving this instability. The Covid-19 restrictions that forced mining suspensions, meant less exploration, which led to a market perception of lower reserve horizons and less gold for spot delivery…Read More on Gold Cold Consolidation Continue
