Perpetua Resources Corp.

Perpetua Resources Corp.

Perpetua Resources ACF Equity Research

perpetua resources acf equity research

Company Statement: Perpetua Resources Corp., through its wholly owned subsidiaries, is focused on the exploration, site restoration and redevelopment of gold-antimony-silver deposits in the Stibnite-Yellow Pine district of central Idaho that are encompassed by the Stibnite Gold Project. The Project is one of the highest-grade, open pit gold deposits in the United States and is designed to apply a modern, responsible mining approach to restore an abandoned mine site and produce both gold and the only mined source of antimony in the United States.

Further advancing Perpetua Resources’ ESG and sustainable mining goals, the Project will be powered by the lowest carbon emissions grid in the nation and a portion of the antimony produced from the Project will be supplied to Ambri, a US-based company commercializing a low-cost liquid metal battery essential for the low-carbon energy transition.

  +44 20 7419 7928

*Please Note That Estimates and Valuation Ranges are Only Valid for a Maximum of Six [6] Months After Publication Date


Tuesday, 07 March 2023

Intrinsic Price (USD) 6.86
Value Range Low (USD) 6.68
Value Range High (USD) 7.03
Implied MCAP (m) 452.26
Implied EV (m) 416.29
Financial YE 31-Dec
Currency USD

Business Activity

Mining E&P

Key metrics

Close Price (USD) 3.56
MCAP (m) 224.32
Net Debt (Cash) (m) -36.21
EV (m) 188.11
52 Wk Hi 4.88
52 Wk Lo 1.69

Key ratios

(Net Cash) /Shareholder Equity % -16.14%
FX Rate USD/USD 1.00

Mining Sector Research
Nasdaq Market Index
Analyst Team
+44 20 7419 7928

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Company Overview

Perpetua Resources Corp. (Nasdaq: PPTA; TSX: PPTA) is an Idaho based (Stibnite jurisdiction), gold-antimony-silver (Au-Sb-Ag) junior explorer/producer. ACF is releasing a valuation increase for PPTA based on milestones achieved since our initiation note. ACF identifies PPTA as a US national strategic asset (Sb) and best-in-class gold asset. On Dec 19, 2022 PPTA received a critical minerals award from the DoD of up to $24.8m for environmental/engineering studies to complete FEIS, RoD/permits and advance year 1 construction readiness. PPTA is an ESG leader amongst junior miners (long run lower WACC). PPTA holds a unique antimony (Sb) reserve in the US and is positioned to be…To read more download note


We have modelled 3 NPVs for Perpetua Resources, based upon the metals we expect it to produce. Gold accounts for approximately 92% of our total Perpetual Resources NPV.

PPTA (lighter line) Nasdaq market vs price relative

Investment Case

Perpetua Resources Corp, an ESG/sustainability focussed junior miner is redeveloping the Stibnite Gold Project (SGP), Idaho, previously abandoned after 100+ years of mining activity. PPTA’s SGP boasts high grade gold @ 2.2 g/t (est. years 1-4 with M + I resource of 6 Moz Au @ 1.42 g/t). The 2020 feasibility study (FS) suggests superior economics with a post-tax NPV of $1.86bn (assumptions: 5% discount rate, gold $1,850/oz) and will be the only domestic mined source of the critical mineral Sb (M+I 206Mlbs @0.07%).

Top tier gold mine – PPTA completed a feasibility study (FS) on the Stibnite Gold Project in Dec 2020. The FS recorded Proven & Probable Reserves at 4.8 Moz gold (Au) @ 1.43 g/t, Measure and Indicated (M + I) at 6.0 Moz @ 1.42 g/t.

Gold – PPTA’s superior project economics: The SGP, is located along the eastern edge of the Idaho Batholith, within the Central Idaho Mineral Belt.

Antimony – PPTA could reduce US critical minerals supply chain risk: PPTA plans to supply ~35% of US Sb demand. Antimony is a critical mineral used in renewables, LDES, defense (ammunition et al), and fire-retardant materials.

ESG and Sustainability impact on valuation – PPTA is a leading exemplar within the junior mining space for ESG/Sustainability. The emphasis on ESG will lower its cost of capital through reduced risk and greater competition from investors.

Defense – On Dec 19, 2022 Perpetua received an award of up to $28.4m under the Defense Production Act (DPA) for critical minerals, i.e. Antimony trisulfide. On Sept 12, 2022, Perpetua announced a $200k grant by the US Department of Defense (DoD) (through Defense Logistics Agency (DLA)) for… To read more download note

The Antimony Market

Uses of Antimony Aug 2022

Antimony mineral deposits are found in geological environments with a thick sequence of siliciclastic (or carbonate sedimentary rocks) in areas with fault and fracture systems. (These are rocks that are composed of silicate minerals such as quartz or clay).

Antimony is mined as a by-product of other minerals where it is found as a constituent. The Stibnite competitive advantage is the abundance of gold reserves. Perpetua’s FS study modelled a valuation based on 115 Mlbs of antimony. The FS presents recorded Proven & Probable Mineral Reserves of 148 Mlbs antimony at grade 0.06% contained in 104m MT and Measured & Indicated (M+I) 206 Mlbs antimony at 0.07% grade contained in 132m MT or ore.

Uses – Antimony’s physical and chemical properties make it a strongly desirable for use in many sectors including energy, military applications, electronics, autos, shipbuilding, heavy equipment, LED lighting etc.,

Antimony Supply Side

Antimony Supply – China is currently the largest producer of antimony, with reserves of ~480k MT in 2021A, followed by Russia and Tajikistan (exhibit 12). Others including the UK, Canada, Germany and Japan have identified antimony resources but have not yet begun exploiting these.

While the US has no domestic antimony production, the Perpetua Stibnite Gold Project (SGP) is considered one of the largest deposits outside of China and Russia. The strategy is to make the US an independent producer of antimony. In 2020 the US imported ~81% of its antimony consumption from countries hostile to US interests (China, Russia and their allies).

The antimony supply chain is concentrated around Chinese production (exhibit 13). Chinese processing and fabrication facilities extend downstream with almost total dominance throughout the entire value chain and include direct/indirect control of deposits/feedstocks from Russia, Bolivia, Tajikistan, Canada, et al.

Supporting the US defense supply chain

PPTA’s DPA funding and DoD grant will support the US’ re-introduction of domestic antimony production to reduce reliance on foreign supply chains. Antimony is used in a variety of US military applications such as ammunition, batteries and flame retardants. The Russia-Ukraine war has created a sense of urgency for the US to reinforce its weapons supply chain.

According to the CSIS, the US continues to evoke “risk averse, inefficient and sluggish” efforts in regard to its industrial base, in addition to workforce shortages, obsolete production lines and supply chain disruptions. While this may be the case, the steps that the US government has taken in order to promote PPTA’s operations are evidence that… To read more download note

Perpetua Resources Financials 2027E – 2030E

Revenue vs Operating Cost 2027E

Revenue vs Operating Cost 2028E

Revenue vs Operating Cost 2029E

Revenue vs Operating Cost 2030E

Perpetua Resources Corp. Catalysts

     ➢ Final EIS 2H23E

     ➢ Final permitting decision end 23E/beginning 24E

Rising gold price

Rising antimony demand / supply tightening (ammunition usage and innovation (EVs / clean energy)

Successful Mil-Spec results from DoD project

Gold (Au) Open Pit Mining

Feasibility Study estimates Proven and Probable reserves 4.8 Moz @1.43 g/t

Gold (Au) Tailings

Feasibility Study estimates 3m MT @>1.0 g/t

Antimony (Sb)

Feasibility Study estimates Proven and Probable Reserves 148 Mlbs @ 0.06%

Silver (Ag)

Feasibility Study estimates 0.06 oz/t in 115m MT

Additional research notes

US Strategic Asset (Sb) – Beats our expectations 12042023

The Essential US National Defense Project 19012023

PPTA Post-Results 3Q22A 18112022

PPTA Pre-Results Note  03112022

PPTA Initiation Note  29092022

PPTA Core Investment Case Update 18082022

PPTA Core Investment Case 28042022

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