Perpetua Resources Corp.

Perpetua Resources Corp.

Perpetua Resources ACF Equity Research

perpetua resources acf equity research

Company Statement: Perpetua Resources Corp., through its wholly owned subsidiaries, is focused on the exploration, site restoration and redevelopment of gold-antimony-silver deposits in the Stibnite-Yellow Pine district of central Idaho that are encompassed by the Stibnite Gold Project. The Project is one of the highest-grade, open pit gold deposits in the United States and is designed to apply a modern, responsible mining approach to restore an abandoned mine site and produce both gold and the only mined source of antimony in the United States.

Further advancing Perpetua Resources’ ESG and sustainable mining goals, the Project will be powered by the lowest carbon emissions grid in the nation and a portion of the antimony produced from the Project will be supplied to Ambri, a US-based company commercializing a low-cost liquid metal battery essential for the low-carbon energy transition.

  +44 20 7419 7928

Wednesday, 28 September 2022

Intrinsic Price (USD) 5.40
Value Range Low (USD) 5.26
Value Range High (USD) 5.53
Implied MCAP (m) 356
Implied EV (m) 320
XNAS PPTA
TSX PPTA
Financial YE 31-Dec
Currency USD

Business Activity

Mining E&P

Key metrics

Close Price (USD) 2.00
MCAP (m) 125.98
Net Debt (Cash) (m) -36.21
EV (m) 89.77
52 Wk Hi 5.94
52 Wk Lo 1.89

Key ratios

(Net Cash) /Shareholder Equity % -28.74%
FX Rate USD/USD 1.00

Mining Sector Research
Nasdaq Market Index
Analyst Team
+44 20 7419 7928
mining@acfequityresearch.com

perpetua respources multiples table

Company Overview

Perpetua Resources Corp. (Nasdaq: PPTA; TSX: PPTA) is an Idaho based (Stibnite jurisdiction), gold-antimony-silver
(Au-Sb-Ag) junior explorer/producer. Our analysis identifies PPTA as a US national strategic asset (Sb) and a
best-in-class gold asset. PPTA is a sustainability/ESG leader amongst junior miners (LR lower WACC) – PPTA has produced sustainability reports since 2014 and has begun a water quality improvement project at Stibnite.
PPTA holds the only economic Sb reserve in the US and is positioned to be the only domestically mined source of Sb
(supplying ~35% of domestic demand). The US is heavily reliant on Sb for defense and ammunition.
PPTA was recently awarded $200k from the DoD through the Defense Logistics Agency, to evaluate if its Sb meets military specifications (Mil-Spec)…To read more download note

Gold
Antimony
Silver

We have modelled 3 NPVs for Perpetua Resources, based upon the metals we expect it to produce. Gold accounts for approximately 92% of our total Perpetual Resources NPV.

PPTA (lighter line) Nasdaq market vs price relative

Investment Case

Perpetua Resources Corp, an ESG/sustainability focussed junior miner is redeveloping the Stibnite Gold Project (SGP), Idaho, previously abandoned
after 100+ years of mining activity. PPTA’s SGP boasts high grade gold @ 2.2 g/t (est. years 1-4 with M + I resource of 6 Moz Au @ 1.42 g/t). The 2020 feasibility study (FS) suggests superior economics with a post-tax NPV of $1.86bn (assumptions: 5% discount rate, gold $1,850/oz) and will be the only domestic mined source of the critical mineral Sb (M+I 206Mlbs @0.07%).

Top tier gold mine –PPTA completed a feasibility study (FS) on the Stibnite Gold Project in Dec 2020. The FS recorded Proven & Probable Reserves at 4.8 Moz gold (Au) @ 1.43 g/t, Measure and Indicated (M + I) at 6.0 Moz @ 1.42 g/t.

Gold – PPTA’s superior project economics: The SGP, is located along the eastern edge of the Idaho Batholith, within the Central Idaho Mineral Belt.

Antimony – PPTA could reduce US critical minerals supply chain risk: PPTA plans to supply ~35% of US Sb demand. Antimony is a critical mineral used in renewables, LDES, defense (ammunition et al), and fire-retardant materials.

ESG and Sustainability impact on valuation – PPTA is a leading exemplar within the junior mining space for ESG/Sustainability. The emphasis on ESG will lower its cost of capital through reduced risk and greater competition from investors. To read more download note

The Antimony Market

Uses of Antimony Aug 2022

Antimony mineral deposits are found in geological environments with a thick sequence of siliciclastic (or carbonate sedimentary rocks) in areas with fault and fracture systems. (These are rocks that are composed of silicate minerals such as quartz or clay).

Antimony is mined as a by-product of other minerals where it is found as a constituent. The Stibnite competitive advantage is the abundance of gold reserves. Perpetua’s FS study modelled a valuation based on 115 Mlbs of antimony. The FS presents recorded Proven & Probable Mineral Reserves of 148 Mlbs antimony at grade 0.06% contained in 104m MT and Measured & Indicated (M+I) 206 Mlbs antimony at 0.07% grade contained in 132m MT or ore.

Uses – Antimony’s physical and chemical properties make it a strongly desirable for use in many sectors including energy, military applications, electronics, autos, shipbuilding, heavy equipment, LED lighting etc.,

Antimony Supply Side

Antimony Supply – China is currently the largest producer of antimony, with reserves of ~480k MT in 2021A, followed by Russia and Tajikistan (exhibit 12). Others including the UK, Canada, Germany and Japan have identified antimony resources but have not yet begun exploiting these.

While the US has no domestic antimony production, the Perpetua Stibnite Gold Project (SGP) is considered one of the largest deposits outside of China and Russia. The strategy is to make the US an independent producer of antimony. In 2020 the US imported ~81% of its antimony consumption from countries hostile to US interests (China, Russia and their allies).

The antimony supply chain is concentrated around Chinese production (exhibit 13). Chinese processing and fabrication facilities extend downstream with almost total dominance throughout the entire value chain and include direct/indirect control of deposits/feedstocks from Russia, Bolivia, Tajikistan, Canada, et al.

Operational Strategy

Perpetua’s strategy is to advance its Stibnite project to commercial production in 2027E. To achieve this, PPTA has 6 key steps over the next 5 years:

  • Issue of a supplemental draft environmental impact statement (SDEIS) 4Q22E;
  • Final EIS and draft record of decision – publication 2H23E;
  • Final record of decision (ROD) – publication end 23E/beginning 24E;
  • Ancillary permits and financing expected 1Q24E;
  • Construction and legacy restoration to begin 2024E;
  • Commercial production start scheduled for 2027E.

PPTA’s Stibnite Gold Project is designed to source gold responsibly and is the only potentially domestic mined source of critical / clean tech metal, antimony, essential for clean energy and defense supply chains.

Perpetua Resources Financials 20027E – 2030E

Revenue vs Operating Cost 2027E

Revenue vs Operating Cost 2028E

Revenue vs Operating Cost 2029E

Revenue vs Operating Cost 2030E

Perpetua Resources Corp. Catalysts

     ➢ Issue of draft environmental impact statement 4Q22E;

     ➢ Final EIS 2H23E

Final permitting decision end 23E/beginning 24E

Rising gold price; Rising antimony demand / supply tightening (ammunition usage and innovation (EVs / clean energy)

RSuccessful Mil-Spec results from DoD project

Gold (Au) Open Pit Mining

Feasibility Study estimates Proven and Probable reserves 4.8 Moz @1.43 g/t

Gold (Au) Tailings

Feasibility Study estimates 3m MT @>1.0 g/t

Antimony (Sb)

Feasibility Study estimates Proven and Probable Reserves 148 Mlbs @ 0.06%

Silver (Ag)

Feasibility Study estimates 0.06 oz/t in 115m MT

Additional research notes

PPTA Core Investment Case Update 18082022

PPTA Core Investment Case 28042022

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Perpetua Resources ACF Equity Research

perpetua resources acf equity research

Company Statement: Perpetua Resources Corp., through its wholly owned subsidiaries, is focused on the exploration, site restoration and redevelopment of gold-antimony-silver deposits in the Stibnite-Yellow Pine district of central Idaho that are encompassed by the Stibnite Gold Project. The Project is one of the highest-grade, open pit gold deposits in the United States and is designed to apply a modern, responsible mining approach to restore an abandoned mine site and produce both gold and the only mined source of antimony in the United States.

Further advancing Perpetua Resources’ ESG and sustainable mining goals, the Project will be powered by the lowest carbon emissions grid in the nation and a portion of the antimony produced from the Project will be supplied to Ambri, a US-based company commercializing a low-cost liquid metal battery essential for the low-carbon energy transition.

  +44 20 7419 7928

Company Overview

Perpetua Resources Corp. (Nasdaq: PPTA; TSX: PPTA) is an Idaho based (Stibnite jurisdiction), gold-antimony-silver
(Au-Sb-Ag) junior explorer/producer. Our analysis identifies PPTA as a US national strategic asset (Sb) and a
best-in-class gold asset. PPTA is a sustainability/ESG leader amongst junior miners (LR lower WACC) – PPTA has produced sustainability reports since 2014 and has begun a water quality improvement project at Stibnite.
PPTA holds the only economic Sb reserve in the US and is positioned to be the only domestically mined source of Sb
(supplying ~35% of domestic demand). The US is heavily reliant on Sb for defense and ammunition.
PPTA was recently awarded $200k from the DoD through the Defense Logistics Agency, to evaluate if its Sb meets military specifications (Mil-Spec)…To read more download note

Gold
Antimony
Silver

Perpetua Resources has 3 MPV’s  – Gold being the largest MPV followed by Antimony and Silver

PPTA (lighter line) Nasdaq market vs price relative

Investment Case

Perpetua Resources Corp, an ESG/sustainability focussed junior miner is redeveloping the Stibnite Gold Project (SGP), Idaho, previously abandoned
after 100+ years of mining activity. PPTA’s SGP boasts high grade gold @ 2.2 g/t (est. years 1-4 with M + I resource of 6 Moz Au @ 1.42 g/t). The 2020 feasibility study (FS) suggests superior economics with a post-tax NPV of $1.86bn (assumptions: 5% discount rate, gold $1,850/oz) and will be the only domestic mined source of the critical mineral Sb (M+I 206Mlbs @0.07%).

Top tier gold mine –PPTA completed a feasibility study (FS) on the Stibnite Gold Project in Dec 2020. The FS recorded Proven & Probable Reserves at 4.8 Moz gold (Au) @ 1.43 g/t, Measure and Indicated (M + I) at 6.0 Moz @ 1.42 g/t.

Gold – PPTA’s superior project economics: The SGP, is located along the eastern edge of the Idaho Batholith, within the Central Idaho Mineral Belt.

Antimony – PPTA could reduce US critical minerals supply chain risk: PPTA plans to supply ~35% of US Sb demand. Antimony is a critical mineral used in renewables, LDES, defense (ammunition et al), and fire-retardant materials.

ESG and Sustainability impact on valuation – PPTA is a leading exemplar within the junior mining space for ESG/Sustainability. The emphasis on ESG will lower its cost of capital through reduced risk and greater competition from investors. To read more download note

The Antimony Market

Uses of Antimony Aug 2022

Antimony mineral deposits are found in geological environments with a thick sequence of siliciclastic (or carbonate sedimentary rocks) in areas with fault and fracture systems. (These are rocks that are composed of silicate minerals such as quartz or clay).

Antimony is mined as a by-product of other minerals where it is found as a constituent. The Stibnite competitive advantage is the abundance of gold reserves. Perpetua’s FS study modelled a valuation based on 115 Mlbs of antimony. The FS presents recorded Proven & Probable Mineral Reserves of 148 Mlbs antimony at grade 0.06% contained in 104m MT and Measured & Indicated (M+I) 206 Mlbs antimony at 0.07% grade contained in 132m MT or ore.

Uses – Antimony’s physical and chemical properties make it a strongly desirable for use in many sectors including energy, military applications, electronics, autos, shipbuilding, heavy equipment, LED lighting etc.,

Antimony Supply Side

Antimony Supply – China is currently the largest producer of antimony, with reserves of ~480k MT in 2021A, followed by Russia and Tajikistan (exhibit 12). Others including the UK, Canada, Germany and Japan have identified antimony resources but have not yet begun exploiting these.

While the US has no domestic antimony production, the Perpetua Stibnite Gold Project (SGP) is considered one of the largest deposits outside of China and Russia. The strategy is to make the US an independent producer of antimony. In 2020 the US imported ~81% of its antimony consumption from countries hostile to US interests (China, Russia and their allies).

The antimony supply chain is concentrated around Chinese production (exhibit 13). Chinese processing and fabrication facilities extend downstream with almost total dominance throughout the entire value chain and include direct/indirect control of deposits/feedstocks from Russia, Bolivia, Tajikistan, Canada, et al.

Operational Strategy

Perpetua’s strategy is to advance its Stibnite project to commercial production in 2027E. To achieve this, PPTA has 6 key steps over the next 5 years:

  • Issue of a supplemental draft environmental impact statement (SDEIS) 4Q22E;
  • Final EIS and draft record of decision – publication 2H23E;
  • Final record of decision (ROD) – publication end 23E/beginning 24E;
  • Ancillary permits and financing expected 1Q24E;
  • Construction and legacy restoration to begin 2024E;
  • Commercial production start scheduled for 2027E.

PPTA’s Stibnite Gold Project is designed to source gold responsibly and is the only potentially domestic mined source of critical / clean tech metal, antimony, essential for clean energy and defense supply chains.

Perpetua Resources Financials 20027E – 2030E

Revenue vs Operating Cost 2027E

Revenue vs Operating Cost 2028E

Revenue vs Operating Cost 2029E

Revenue vs Operating Cost 2030E

Perpetua Resources Corp. Catalysts

     ➢ Issue of draft environmental impact statement 4Q22E;

     ➢ Final EIS 2H23E

Final permitting decision end 23E/beginning 24E

Rising gold price; Rising antimony demand / supply tightening (ammunition usage and innovation (EVs / clean energy)

RSuccessful Mil-Spec results from DoD project

Gold (Au) Open Pit Mining

Feasibility Study estimates Proven and Probable reserves 4.8 Moz @1.43 g/t

Gold (Au) Tailings

Feasibility Study estimates 3m MT @>1.0 g/t

Antimony (Sb)

Feasibility Study estimates Proven and Probable Reserves 148 Mlbs @ 0.06%

Silver (Ag)

Feasibility Study estimates 0.06 oz/t in 115m MT

PPTA Core Investment Case Update 18082022

PPTA Core Investment Case 28042022

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